It's been hard to make sense of Jonathan Lucroy's sudden decline this season. Just a year ago, he had re-established himself as one of the two elite catchers in Fantasy, after a disappointing, injury-plagued 2015 campaign.
Jonathan Lucroy
ATL • C • #14
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Lucroy is hitting just .242/.297/.338, career-worst numbers across the board, with just four homers and 27 RBI and runs in 77 games to boot. He ranks just 28th at catcher in Rotisserie scoring formats, and his slide hasn't just been limited to his bat; Lucroy has been one of the worst pitch framers in baseball, per FanGraphs.com.
Lucroy has been barely worth owning in Fantasy, and his owners have been left wondering for weeks when was the right time to cut bait with him. However, with a reported trade to Colorado set to go down before the deadline (Ken Rosenthal reported it first), there's a pretty good chance you'll be glad you never dropped him in the first place.
Lucroy's decline has been precipitous, and has impacted nearly every aspect of his game. He has seen his line drive rate fall to a career-low 17.1 percent, and he has lost most of his power thanks to a spike in groundball rate to 56.2 percent. When he has driven the ball in the air, he has tended to not do much with it, thanks to a 22.3 percent hard-hit rate, his lowest since 2011 and the eighth-lowest mark in baseball this season.
Coors Field has a tendency to fix these kind of issues. It isn't a magical cure-all, obviously; just ask Trevor Story and Carlos Gonzalez. However, the bar for relevance at catcher is so low, Coors might be enough to get Lucroy there on its own. Even in an inflated offensive environment league-wide, Coors is still the most offense-rich environment in baseball, with hitters currently sporting a .290/.353/.487 mark there for the season.
Coors is well known for how it boosts power, and that should help Lucroy, who sports a punchless .096 Isolated slugging percentage in 2017. However, Coors also inflates batting averages, and this is where Lucroy could benefit even in his diminished state.
For all his struggles, Lucroy has still had elite bat-to-ball abilities. He has struck out just 10.5 percent of the time, with a career-low 4.8 percent swinging strike rate along with it. It shouldn't be hard for him to hit for a respectable average given how often he puts the ball in play, however a .259 BABIP has sunk him.
The good news is, Rockies hitters have a .356 BABIP at home this season, compared to a .314 mark on the road. Even if Lucroy doesn't improve his baseline skill set, playing half his games – actually, a bit more than half, as the Rockies play 31 of their final 57 games at home – he could pretty easily hit .280-.290, enough to make him remain startable, especially in two-catcher formats.
Those of you in one-catcher leagues still have a tough decision to make on Lucroy, but I would hang on and hope this trade sparks something in him. There were no signs of impending doom last season, and Lucroy has already proven once he can turn his career around when it seemed to be going off the rails. There aren't many positive signs to go on for him in 2017, but the longer track record still supports Lucroy, especially with the benefit of Coors.
Even if you assume Lucroy is finished as an elite hitter, Coors Field should be enough to help him clear the low bar of Fantasy relevance at catcher. And, there still aren't many backstops with the kind of elite potential Lucroy has proven to have for most of his career. It might be a long shot for him to get there, but that upside is easier to bet on now that Coors should help give him a higher floor.
The next two months are going to be crucial for Lucroy. He's a 31-year-old catcher heading to free agency for the first time in his career. A strong finish could help him lock in the kind of money he's never seen before. The Rockies are betting he'll rediscovery his stroke and help carry them in their push for a title, and I would be willing to make the same bet.
